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Automatic Promotion: (Championship Predictions)
- Leicester City: Lock them in. The Foxes are almost guaranteed a return to the Premier League, with the supercomputer predicting they’ll finish top in 98.6% of simulations. 100 points? Watch out!
- The Battle for Second: Ipswich, Southampton, and Leeds are locked in a thrilling fight for the second automatic promotion spot. Currently, Ipswich holds a slight edge with 57.7% of simulations, but Southampton’s recent surge has put them in the mix at 20.7%. Leeds can’t be ignored either, sitting at 21.6%.
- West Brom in Control: The Baggies are strong contenders for the playoffs, finishing inside the top six in 62.8% of simulations.
Playoff Contenders:
- Coventry, Sunderland, Hull, and Watford: These four teams are all hovering around the 20% chance mark for snagging a playoff spot. Sunderland’s recent dip has caused their odds to drop, while Hull’s Boxing Day win against them gave them a boost.
- Michael Beale’s Impact: Sunderland’s new head coach has a tough task ahead. While their relegation risk has slightly increased to 25.6%, their recent form shows potential for improvement.
Relegation Zone:
- Rotherham Sinking: The Millers are looking increasingly likely to drop down to League One, with their relegation odds skyrocketing to 93.6%.
- Sheffield Wednesday Rising: Under Danny Röhl’s leadership, the Owls are showing signs of life. Although still at risk of relegation (91.9% chance), their improved form keeps them above the likes of QPR and Birmingham.
- QPR’s Cautious Climb: While they’ve improved since Ainsworth’s departure, QPR remain in the danger zone with a 64.5% relegation risk. Losing key players like Ilias Chair won’t help their cause.
Plymouth’s Progress: Despite manager Schumacher’s departure, Plymouth have comfortably distanced themselves from the relegation zone, with only a 4.6% chance of dropping down.
The Opta-Simulated Table:
This table shows the average predicted finishing position for each team based on the 10,000 simulations: Championship Predictions 2023-24
| Rank | Team | Average Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1th | Leicester City | 101.7 |
| 2 | Ipswich Town | 89.4 |
| 3 | Southampton | 84.0 |
| 4 | Leeds United | 83.9 |
| 5 | West Brom | 73.8 |
| 6 | Sunderland | 68.4 |
| 7 | Coventry City | 67.9 |
| 8 | Middlesbrough | 67.6 |
| 9 | Hull City | 67.6 |
| 10 | Watford | 66.0 |
| 11 | Norwich City | 64.8 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 64.6 |
| 13 | Preston North End | 62.3 |
| 14 | Cardiff City | 62.0 |
| 15 | Blackburn Rovers | 60.3 |
| 16 | Swansea City | 59.0 |
| 17 | Plymouth Argyle | 54.7 |
| 18 | Stoke City | 53.2 |
| 19 | Millwall | 53.1 |
| 20 | Birmingham City | 52.6 |
| 21 | Huddersfield Town | 50.3 |
| 22 | Queens Park Rangers | 43.6 |
| 23 | Sheffield Wednesday | 37.7 |
| 24 | Rotherham United | 37.2 |
- Leicester City
- Ipswich Town
- Southampton
- Leeds United
- West Bromwich Albion
- Coventry City
- Sunderland
- Hull City
- Watford
- Middlesbrough
- Norwich City
- Bristol City
- Preston North End
- Cardiff City
- Blackburn Rovers
- Swansea City
- Stoke City
- Millwall
- Birmingham City
- Huddersfield Town
- Queens Park Rangers
- Sheffield Wednesday
- Rotherham United
This is just a snapshot of the Championship race as we approach the end of December. With plenty of twists and turns still to come, buckle up for an exciting second half of the season!
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